CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-07-20T23:12:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2016 Jul 22 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 60722
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jul 2016, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jul 2016 until 24 Jul 2016)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jul 2016  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 006
COMMENT: NOAA 2567 produced all 7 C-class flares observed during the
period, the strongest being a C9.1 peaking at 12:55UT. NOAA 2567 has
decreased somewhat in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. NOAA 2565 was
quiet. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. A
substantial CME first seen by LASCO/C2 at 02:48UT was related to a backside
event.

C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed decreased from 430 to 380 km/s. Bz gradually turned
negative, from an initial +8 nT to -5 nT at the end of the reporting
period. The interplanetary magnetic field was directed towards the Sun
(negative). A positive coronal hole (CH; latitude +20 degrees) will start
its central meridian transit later today. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected. Active
episodes are possible in response to the high speed stream of the negative
northern coronal hole, and from a possible glancing blow of the 21 July CME
later today or on 23 July. A minor storming episode is not excluded.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 043, BASED ON 25 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jul 2016
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 071
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 100
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 011
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 055, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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